Just
a month back when I was reading business headlines from economic times.
It was having full coverage on how OYO is going to expand its market in various
areas.
This
is just a beginning in the contrast of new developments in India and South Asia
market.
is the brainchild of Ritesh Agarwal and one of his friend, and during 2014 he
started implementing his thought and ship is built in the sea. This idea
was shared by one of the guy in Delhi who was then writing mini-blogs on new
startups, so this was the same idea which I read in one of the blogs during
2012. The creator can be the executor, but sometime creator only create the concept
and some other people work on its execution, so they are known in the
ecosystem. Many examples are there, and you can find many more
startups who succeed to create a valuation of more than 16 Billion Dollar.
Flipkart is one of the best examples.
Purpose
of writing this blog is to predict the future of Startups in the coming
days. I am very much sure that Founders, Co-Founders are going to lose
control, and they are going to leave their brainchild in the hands of
Investors.
Let's
figure out the latest successful startups companies and how they will go in the
hands of the investor in the coming days.
Here
are the talk of the town these days.
1.
OYO
2.
Paytm
3.
Flipkart
4.
Swiggy
5.
Ola
6.
Makemytrip
7.
Bookmyshow
8.
Grofers
9.
Bigbasket
10.Cardekho
11.Urbanladder
12.
Policybazar
13.
Justdial
14.Shopclues
15.Zomato
16.Snapdeal
And
many more.
Must
have an analysis that common instinct is above all startups. Just make a
brainstorming?
Okay,
Lets us figure out the instinct and driven force which is giving acceleration
to these startups is " Technology" driven platform. IT makes
them reach beyond the boundaries and scaling them to become a billionaire club
member.
Let's
take a few from the list where I will give some small pin and pain points
which help you to understand what they will do in the near future and who is
going to benefit.
OYO
Rooms:
The
concept is straightforward but innovative as it was not tasted before in
India in the hotel industry. USD 460 million valuation as on August, 2016,
and Softbank has more tha 50% stake in this startup. Yes, OYO is brainchild of Ritesh Agarwal
who started working on this concept since
2012.
Bringing
standalone hotel properties under one brand name “ OYO” and promoting their
existence to end consumer through B2C Application and various ATL/BTL marketing
Activities.
What
OYO is doing :
- Standardisation in terms of
the physical appearance of Rooms, Look and feel and ambience of the hotel
reception. Simple processes. - Digitise end to end
interface. Customer can find hotel rooms on OYO App and accordingly best
deal can connect them to OYO rooms. - . Marketing OYO concept
through various channels of marketing. - Asset Light
Model. - . Invested in infrastructure
and manuals.
I
am expecting that by the end of 2019 OYO will have more than 10 billion
valuations and one of the fasted growing hotel chains without owning a single
hotel. OYO is now UNICORN.
OYO
will be the biggest hotel chain, more than 10 billion valuations by 2019 and by
then Founder will have a 5% or more stake in the company, and still, they will
have handsome money in hand. But do you think that money will make Founder
happy after creating such a large valuable empire? No, after certain time money
for an individual matter only matter, and passion and fashion become the brain
ride. Social status and sentiments with the company make them more connected.
Ritesh Agarwal is still young, so I will suggest him to do not rush to expand
business amid greed by funding. You are coming under the trap of
funding. By 2020 when OYO will have more than 10 billion USD valuation.
no doubt by then Founder will have 5% stake, but that will have worth more than
expectations. But, then VC funds will have direct control and maybe time will
tell whether you will be minority regards to stakeholding.
I
am not sticking to 5% will be his stake in the company, maybe he can find some
financial institutes who can finance him, this way he can grow his stake up to
30% or more by infusing debts. But it depends on the strength of the brand that
time. No one can predict the future, but things go accordingly.
PAYTM:
PAYTM one
of the brainchild of Vijay Shekhar, an One97 communications brand. So far
raised USD 1.7 billion funds from various VC funds and currently valued at USD 7
billion. Here we can see the valuation matrix how it went from scratch to sky
just after demonetisation. In only two year growth is more than three
times. A big investor like Alibaba is playing a major role where they are
going to have a total controls in the next five year. Things are changing
dramatically, but why. You need to think that Paytm is working in India
where more than 100 crores population reside. So we should not feel so
astonished because this is just 30% of the population is using online mode of
payments/ transactions so think when these numbers grow to 50% or more.
Don't you believe Paytm will have more than USD 20 Billion valuations if users
grow at the end of year 2019.
My predictions
for Paytm : Valuaton will be USD 16-20
billion by 2019-20.
Will
have more than 70% stake by the Investors.
I
am quite confident that Vijay Shekhar will be quite lucky to have more than 20%
stake even after reaching to a stagnant position or saturation.
Above
two examples is enough to acknowledge my write up.
Another
big example is going to set by the Sachin Bansal and Binny Bansal, I think the way company “ Flipkart” is losing financials on year on year basis and the way infusion of money is coming from
investors, both will have below 10% stake in the company in coming two or three
year.
Any
way, at a sudden flood of investment coming from various VC, Angel and
seed capitalists and their aim is to build a virtual valuation over some time
so that they can sale their stake at higher valuation level and reached to
unicorn club. This is just a myth that Indian companies are going
aggressive in terms of business. Not actually it is going, but part of
valuation fact is where there is no
business viability seen even beyond five years, an ideal benchmark for getting
any business sustainable.
I
think technology is going to drive the next level of business scenarios.
India is full of opportunities where the retail sector is getting better shape
day after day. As per the unorganised data Retail will have more
than USD 1 Trillion market by 2020
Let's
talk about startups which are active in Retail sectors, and I will say retail
players who are driving organised trade in Kirana the Grocery market.
Let's have a look who are the big players as on date.
Retail
players in B2C in India : National Level players. Lots of companies
are there in India who are operating Kirana retail at regional level so about
them I will write later.
Physical
formats:
1.
Reliance fresh
2.
D-mart
3.
Future Group Big Bazar and Easyday
4.
More
5.
On Door ( MP based )
6.
Vishal Mart
I
bag pardon from retail companies whose name was escaped while writing the name
in above list. Here D- Mart is seen growing in a great way, seems they
are targeting an IPO in coming years. As regards to Reliance Fresh, they are useful
at making turnover, but still, profit is a little bit far away.
Here I am sure that Reliance will go for raise money from foreign investors for
strengthing their Retail business, here
they will not use their own money. Either they will go for raise money from IPO
or from Venture capital or PE firms.
Now,
will talk about Future group of Kishore Biyani. Here Future
group has more than 7000 crore annual revenue from all formats. As per March
2016 Financials ( Rs. 6844.96 Crore) Kirana contributes approximately 40% of
total income, rest comes from fashion and food stores. After many years
in the market still struggling to get sustainability. Mr Kishore Biyani is well
known and great artiest of Retail, even who is facing issues so what is left
for else.
No
doubt, I have same feeling for Kishore Biyani, this group has ample debts in
books which can not be paid until someone infuse money in a strategic tie-ups.
I think, there are only two giants in space , one is Amazon and other is
Reliance. I am sure Future group will have great acquisition by either one.
It
seems that Indian entrepreneurs have some born mindset that they will be exit
from the business once they will reach to a certain valuation, even plan is
preset at the time of starting venture that what will be the exit plan. What
does it mean, business should be on going process so, when founders are in such
thought that they will take a exit at certain time or certain point it means that are not sure about the concept and business workability, scalability. All are going just for changing the hats.
On
the other hand eB2C players like Amazon is going to deepen their roots in the
ecosystem. They are trying to establish a network of micro stores through will
they can feed hyperlocal need, this will make them competitive. Omnichannel is
the next future for eB2C.
On
the other hand, Big overseas players like Walmart, Metro are investing
heavily in creating infrastructure and passionately going to acquire an existing
business platform where they can feel appropriate box for their upcoming ground-level
strategies. Mind-blowing things are going to happen. Thailand based LOTS ( CP Wholesale ) is also planning to come India.
Now
the retail market is so vast which need separate stream for writing about it in
a whole story or page, so I am feeling the same while writing down about
developments in India retail , so things are little bit going in trenches for
me to make an index of Indian Kirana Retail.
- In
this view I am going to categories Indian Retail Market as under : - ·
Hyper
Market ( Big Bazar, Dmart, Hypercity etc.) - ·
SuperStore
( Easyday, Reliance Fresh, More) - ·
Hyper-Local
(Regional level players, earlier grofers were doing this) - ·
Last
Mile Connectivity Connector ( Retailers for few b2b retailers like
Shopkirana & Storeking) - ·
B2B
Retail formats ( Storeking, Shopkirana, Urbanladder, & Jambotail) - ·
Ecommerce
web-based and App based ( Amazon, Snapdeal, Grofers ) - ·
Direct
Marketing ( very few like Amway, Evon etc.) - ·
Simply
Grocers ( Pure Staples like local kirana) - ·
Retailers,
Mom & Pop , Bricks & Motar , Conventional Stores. ( 12 Million
Stores ) - ·
Discount
Masters ( Mostly in garments and mix products ) - ·
Category
Killers ( Not in India) - ·
Kiosk.
( Mostly in Electronics, Beverages)
My
more focus is on point no. 9 Indian Kirana Stores ( Mom and
Pop stores). I will have more things to write on Indian Kirana.
Retail
is detail, so there is endless ink to give a perfect write up.
Writer: Balwant Singh Rana