Wednesday, October 12, 2022

Entry of new Brands in the Indian CPG Market & It's changing scenario





The purpose of this article is to bring more clarity about the CPG segment and how we can go with the new definition. Why do we need a new definition for the CPG segment and how it will affect its status in the coming years? Same way how new brands in the food segment will affect the CPGs bandwidth and its definition for more coverage.

Meaning
of CPG brands: 
CPG stands for Consumer Packaged
Goods
 and is used to describe products that have to be replaced
every so often due to their daily/weekly use. Examples include food, clothing,
apparel, and beauty products. Now this definition goes a little refined as many
food brands are now available in consumer packing which means they are
fast-moving in the hands of retailers’ / end consumers. We will consider this
topic a little bit centric on Food & Grocery brands under the CPG regime.
Fast-moving consumer products basically referred to products available in
consumer packaging which move fast from the retailers/ commerce platform and
are consumed fast by the consumers. I have my views on the CPG market and how
it will change the new shape in near future. 

The FMCG market in India is expected to increase at a CAGR of 14.9% to reach US$ 220 billion by 2025, from US$ 110 billion in 2020. (As per Brand Equity Foundations). Here we have to understand which companies /brands are representing the Indian FMCG market so far, $ 110 billion market is like
a tip of the iceberg. " We have to include the full iceberg" in the definition of CPG.
 
The
size of Indian retail is expected to be around $1.2 trillion by 2025 so we can
see the share of the CPG market, as on today market size of CPG is $110bn which
is almost 12% of the total present retail size and 50.9% of total Food &
Grocery retails which is somewhere around $611 billion and will have $978
billion size by 2025. CAGR growth is estimated to be around 14.9% by 2025
 
Further, according to “NielsenIQ’s FMCG Snapshot for Q2 2022, the FMCG industry has grown by 10.9% in the quarter ending June 2022, versus 6% in the previous quarter. Also, the consumption
recovery and promising macro factors indicate a double-digit growth for FMCG in India, in 2022”
 
As
per the data available on websites or open source more than 5000 brand
companies are active in India, among them 345 companies have national level or
regional level presence and those are the highest contributors in terms of
business volume.
 
Top 50 FMCG national-level brands:
this list only covers 30+ brands.

 
 


Many more companies are there, FMCG companies there like Ds group, MDH, Everest,
etc...... These include major 50 brand companies at the National level. 
 
Above
30+ brands in the CPG segment contribute 20-25% of total CPG’s $110
billion-plus some portion of staples like branded staples Aashirvad, India gate
/Fortune as national brands. These brands cover major categories like Personal
care, confectionary & snacks, Beverages, Home care & Staples. I have
not taken the Dairy & Frozen, F&V segment in this article. We are
talking about CPG’s contribution in India, it is widely driven by the top 50+
brand companies. What about the rest of those who are either active at the
regional level or local? Even some other medium size players are waiting to
explore the Indian CPG market as Joy brand did.  Like Patanjali came
aggressively in this segment and now giving tough competition to national-level
CPG companies. 
 
Corporates
like Adani, Reliance Jio, Tata consumers, and others are planning to introduce
themselves as big CPG players. Reliance Jiomart already started working in this
segment and started setting up distribution channels aggressively. Last few
years they have been working across categories and succeed to develop their
private label in various categories. the purpose was to go with their private
label in a big way in general trade. Same way, Adani Wilmar is working in this
segment and also other big box retailers are going to join the FMCG drive. The
near future era is going to be a battlefield in the General Trade (GT) market
stream and there they will try to establish themselves as CPG brand owners. The
Axis of the change is the consumer's changing preference and the consumer's
behavior of changing the product is supporting it. Today’s consumer
does not mind trying different brands, especially in the 
Food category.



5000+
companies in Personal care, Confectionary & Snacks, Beverages, Dairy &
Bakery, and Home Care are prevalent in India. They are among the brands
contributing 80% to this segment. I don’t have a relevant data source from
which I can get the brand-level penetration of food products as this segment is
a highly unorganized sector but soon going to become part of CPG in
India. How it will happen? The answer to this is "Change in
consumer preferences", Brands evolved themselves according to the need of
end consumers, and keeping in mind the buying behavior of the medium to lower
class they are coming up with product innovations in terms of quality and
packaging in a fast-paced manner.
 
The
way non-food came in sachet packaging like shampoo, hair oils, and other
personal care products we can expect that one day we will have edible oil,
sugar, tea, and mixed spices in the same way. We have more than 300
million people living below the poverty line and a majority of consumers are
buying their food/staples on daily basis. They don't have a budget to buy the
ration for the whole month. I believe, soon food will be available in sachets
or small consumer packaging, so the definition of CPG is going to evolve. 
 
CPG
definition seems narrow when we talk about the products. A standalone
brand in a consumer packaged product that moves fast in the market or is
heavily demanded by the consumers is something called FMCG/CPG but in India’s
scenario we need to enlarge the coverage of this definition, soon you will find
that regional food brands will also come in this definition.
 
We
have seen how the main staples/ food were sold in India in earlier days. We
don't need to go back much but 15-20 years back food like main staples used to
sell in loose by the retailers. RATIO was 70-30% i.e. 70% bought by the
consumer in loose and 30% was the contribution of Packaged food. Major staples
like Rice, edible oil, Sugar, spices, Dal, etc were sold loose to the consumers
but now these come in consumer packs. However, one thing, we need to
understand, India’s population lives in rural areas, and still, there 50%
market in the main staple is largely dealt with in the loose form. Here we are
covering the study up to Tier III. 
 
Logically, we have to include them under
CPG brands, and if we do this what will happen? The market size of CPG brands
will increase to $ 600-700 billion from its existing $110 billion because of
the contribution of the packaged food segment. Food is contributing 60% of
total grocery retail. The current siz
of food & Grocery is around $611
billion as per 
https://www.researchandmarkets.com which is expected to grow to $ 978
billion by 2025.

 
Taking
this figure of $978 billion out of which the $ 220 bn market will be catered by
the pure play FMCG brands by 2025 majorly contributors of those were the top 50
national level & top 100 companies of regional level under the segment of
CPG/FMCG. As per the market data CPG market will have a $220 billion size by
2025, i.e. 23% of total grocery retail, but, we will have 78% market
which is full of opportunities for our new regional & local players. For ease of my write-up, I am taking Food
& Grocery in the CPG which will have $978 bn market by 2025, and
accordingly will talk about it here. Again
refining it to a digestive level I can
forecast that 30% market will be driven by Staples in Bulk, upto this size let
me be conservative
.
 
 
we will have a $685
bn evolved CPG market size by the end of 2025. 
                     ( $978bn - 30% of $978bn= $685bn).

  

Who will be the contributor to this rally?

 
Interestingly,
in recent years, we have seen tremendous development in this segment. The
startup ecosystem is also giving acceleration by way of bringing technology-led
disruptions. We have seen brands directly approaching consumers, these D2C
brands are creating a big funnel. Brands like Mamaearth, beardo, Nykaa,
and Sugar cosmetics are doing wonderful, as per market sources more than 800+ D2C brands are available in the Indian grocery
market. Likewise, regional players are introducing
 their
products in various categories. On the other side, eB2B startups are working
directly with retailers and claiming to give direct reach to brands. As per the
eB2B startups, Brands do need not to work for the development of their
distribution channel. Startups like Udaan created a big platform of retailers
through their 35+ state-level hubs. More than 1000 eB2B startups are working in
bits and pieces across the country but still, they are not able to place new
brands at retailer’s stores i.e. offline/GT. Traditional distribution plays an
important role when we talk about wide coverage and penetration. Here
would like to mention that we should not take the success of D2C brands as they
are penetrating through e-Commerce marketplaces but, has limitation in scaling
business volume in the short run. D2C brands also start facing problems in
terms of visibility which customers want to physically check, look and feel. I
will cover their problems in my next write-up.
 
So
far 5000+ brand companies already working in various segments. Some of them are
at the regional level but most have a presence in their local territories. During Covid i.e. the year 2020 and post-Covid it is said that more than 10000 FMCG & food brands came but 90% of them could not do much or could not make them sustainable, resulting in leaving the market before taking their first breath. (it is an estimate, however, there is no reliable data available) 
 

Why did this happen to them? What
are the challenges they have to face or they could not make their way
long? 

 
It
is very imperative to understand the root cause. If I am a manufacturer or
a brand owner my aspiration will be totally to create a brand that will give me
a good name, fame, and profit. I will go with the traditional and modern
distribution system in the country and will make my brand available at each
Kirana store/ standalone supermarket and online availability i.e. will have an
Omni channel presence in the market.
 
Still,
there is a long list to outline the problem side but I will start with the
following points how these issues make a stuck in dealing with these problems
and what is next with them as a solution. Making a product market fit always remains a challenge for new brands but it is going tougher day by day because of new developments by the big corporate houses, startups, and emerging corporates. The Challenge of competition is good but if big fishes are in the pond then we will have to
understand the situation of small fish also. This will have happened to them and it will remain there.
It is up to the brand to choose the best distribution channel for their products but sometimes it depends on the nature of the products and how strongly it is placed in the overburdened category. It is always advisable to go for a thorough market survey before a manufacturer introduces their products to the market. Many marketers now talk about working with Omni channel, i.e. brand has to be everywhere from offline to online and vice versa. That’s why I mentioned that market fit should cover all these topics well before introducing the product in the market. 
Let’s put some focus on the problem side faced by the brand manufacturers or brand owners in making their product-market fit.
·        
Challenge in creation of traditional distribution channel – Business / ROI
·        
Indifference mood of retailers is a placement obstacle – Space & competition
·        
Conflict between market channels – GT/MT/E-com
·        
Manpower is one of the big issues – retention
·        
High demand creation cost – Pull strategy
·        
No call for action medium available in an initial marketing campaign – Focused marketing strategies
·        
High cost of Technology intervention - Sales order application & Data Analytics
·        
Impatience behavior of brand owner - Valuation, aspiration to make the venture successful in a short time.
 
The
first challenge is when we are going to identify the potential distributor(s)
for our brand/product. There you will find that the selection process is very
time-consuming and it needs rounds of meetings and getting into the boat of
distributors. Since the distributor is facing their existence issues working
with the existing brands, Struggling to match up the ROI, somewhere insecurity
is there in their mind. As a brand owner first of all you need to download the
brand vision to your potential distributors and should assure them that your
brand is going to add value to their business and you will work on streamlining
the processes and will bring ease of doing. You are there with them, may
talk to retailers and convince them to provide space at the retailer’s stores
and further will assist them in demand creation. More than product retailers
need commitment From you. In this, do not create channel conflict in the first
go. Go one by one.  
 
Omni
channel no doubt is an opportunity for you but your hurry will make your brand
out of the market sometimes so there you have to go wisely. Follow the steps:
 

Don't be the frog of the Well.

 
The
journey of any new brand starts with the native city of the promoters. As a
businessman or entrepreneur, you are following the business process and
marketing practices and accordingly did the pilot run. If your product is
a  'minimum
viable product
' and passed all the necessary market fit exercises then
definitely you are working in the right direction. Earlier say 15 years back,
brands have to go with GT stream because there was no modern trade/ E-comm
penetration available. Don’t copy others, copycat always lags behind while
making their strategies.
 
Firstly:
If you are doing general trade (GT) in the open market in your native city,
then you should not go there for channel conflict i.e. not go with modern trade
placement or e-com platforms like Amazon/ Flipkart. Do not place your product
with supply chain aggregators eB2B platforms however, it depends on the volume
of business. Everything depends on the pace of executing things as per the
strategy.
Second: You should not be like the frog in the Well. If you are working great in the GT market, then you don’t need to go with other channels with the same product SKU size & pricing. If your same product is available everywhere but there is price variation at the end of consumer, then you are going to cannibalize your brand. Try different product sizes and MRP if you want to place your product in modern trade or e-commerce platforms or other marketplaces. This will help you to maintain the pricing and your large market i.e. GT will not face price conflict. Always avoid conflict between market
channels.
 
Third:
My suggestion, is don’t be part of the crowd, go out to another market, and try
your product in an e-commerce platform or modern trade. The same is for small
brands to go with selected A/B retail stores and standalone supermarkets in
said market. If you have good liaising and you can convince modern trade
retailers or e-commerce platforms you can place your product there. This will
help new brand owners to create awareness among consumers. Centralized marketing
expenditure will help you to leverage from there. Don’t be frog of the same
Well. 
 
Lending: Another
main key driver of distribution is lending and logistics which the distributor
has to do, in the current scenario, his main job is lending and logistics. But,
the market took a different shape post covid in a different direction.
Distributors are not interested to take credit exposure from retailers anymore.
I have seen it in tier I & II cities. Almost 50-70% of sales are happening
against COD or PDC maximum of 7 days. This is going to be a hurdle for new
brands because without credit exposures Retailers are not going to entertain
them by not giving space in their stores/shops, and even personal relationship
of distributors is not going to work, hence the placement of these brands will
not happen. Here you have to take a calculated risk on account of providing
adequate credit to distributors so that the same thing they replicate with the
retailers while making sales. However, again time will come for old practices
to follow. The distributor has to follow the SLL ( Sale, Lending &
Logistics) process if they want to remain in this line of business otherwise
soon companies will go with the eB2B startups but still it will take a minimum of
ten years or more to have such changes. Expanding by 2030 50% of traditional
distributors will emerge as organized distributors and big organizations will
come as distribution aggregation platforms.

 
RTV
Policy: The third
 one is dealing with the RTV (return to
vendors). Retailers don’t want to entertain those brands having no RTV
policies. They don't want to be the shit cleaner in case brands have no demand
or it gets expires on the shelf. In the current era, distributors are not in
the mood to test the market and suffer losses due to the goods' returns from
retailers. Here brands have to come with open minds and should clearly
communicate the RTV policy to their distributors and retailers. Take risks, and
build margin in your products so that you as a brand can sustain the setback of
expiry products.
 
Inventory
burden: 
Forth major pain distributors have to suffer from is
carrying stock levels at their warehouses. They are working with various
brands, and as per the nature of product and consumer demand, they have to
maintain a minimum stock level at their warehouse. Sometimes they have to
work with 15 days’ inventory cycle which is high if the said distributor is
doing a sizeable business in the territory. As a brand owner, you will have to
understand the pain point of the distributor. Hence try to maintain an
on-demand stock replenishment system and how quickly you can build a robust
supply chain.
 
Dealing
with various stakeholders:
  Though this is related to the
personal issues of distributors we have to understand how this is going to
affect the external stakeholders or also to distributors in a big
way. Sometimes we don’t evaluate the time factor but it matters a lot when
it is related to a businessman or entrepreneur. After all, time is money.
Distributors are working with 5-10 brands because without if they are not able
to maintain their ROI, they will be out of it. They are dealing with say 8
brands. Naturally, the Area sales manager/ ZSM/brand owner/ Salesmen of these
eight brands stay in touch with him on a daily basis because each one has their
own interests, market developments, and interactions with business prospects.
Dealing with various company personnel and sometimes they involve in BTL
marketing activities like POP deployments at retail stores and arranging market
visits for company officials. I will request you to sit for at least 3 hours to
4 hours at your distributor’s office. You will see, he is only communicating
with the officials where they only talk about the target, scheme, and beat-wise
sales strategy. So, hardly they don’t spare time to think about their business
and its future development. I mentioned this thing here so that at the
time you are going to select your distributors you must know how many brands he
is dealing with, and go with small & mid-size distributors. Instead of
daily follow-up with the Distributors go with a weekly session if you are an
ASM/ or working as RSM. Or you have to go with aggregators who are doing DTR as
organized distributors.
 
Marketing
Support: 
Placement of products either at the distributor’s
warehouse or retailer’s store by the distributors can be done initially using
the personal reputation/relationship of your distributors but what is
thereafter. As brand owners, a few companies are working on aggressive
marketing support which they provide to their distributors and helping them
wisely. But, many distributors go out of sight just because some brands do not
understand the importance of marketing/demand creation/awareness in the focus
market. Forget about building a brand if you are not doing demand-creation
activities. In this dynamic era of marketing, everyone has to spend 50% of
capital/ share of profit doing various activities. So plan your marketing
wisely. Hire a good marketing agency that will guide you and will do the
required PR activities at a marginal cost. Don’t hesitate to do this even at a
low cost or being low profile. 
 
The retailer is
king and playing an important role in the hyperlocal & last-mile Supply
chain, he will remain king even after Indian retail turn 50% organized. Retailers shall remain forever
 
Retailers are playing an important role in
grocery retailing. Retailers know everything about their consumer, their
shopping habits, customs, rituals, festivals, and financial status. As per
open market data, 14 million retailers are part of Kirana retail in India.
These mom & Pop stores/ Kirana stores are BIG contributors to our
national GDP, something around 11%, and also one of the largest employers,
contributing up to 8%, thus, we can understand the importance. Still,
Indian grocery retail is dominated by these unorganized retailers, 95% market
is in the hand of these Kirana retailers (for overall retail it is
85%). This would be an irony if we talk about their poor infrastructure,
have you seen them working in a 150-200sqfeet shop, filled with 350-500 SKUs
and so much unorganized in terms of merchandising of goods?

 
We can see the development happening in
other formats of retails but why Kirana retail is still so
unorganized? Various Eb2b STARTUPS are claiming to empower them in various
ways. The retailer is running his store in the same space which he
was running 20 years back or 15 years back when there were limited assortments
and limited brands. Now, after the emergence of technology and tech-driven
marketplaces, and globalization of the supply chain, there is a change in
consumer preferences and habits.  Brands emerged and evolved
themselves as per the need of end consumers but the main partner of the whole
supply chain i.e. Retailers is still living in the old era.

 
Despite various development going on in
this segment but Retailer is still in the middle of a dilemma and finding
himself surrounded by various consumer-driven developments. This has brought
some stiff competition for him and day by day losing business. The main culprit
of his unrest is the online commerce and big box i.e. standalone retail giants
like Reliance Smart, D-Mart, Local-Mart, Ratandeep, Vishal-mega mart, V-mart,
and many other standalone supermarkets, and now a big threat is coming in the form
of Q-commerce, an impulsive need base supply chain.

The main points of Retailer’s indifferent
moods are:
·        
Diversion of end consumers to other platforms - Business loss due to low product assortment & unhygienic condition of the store.
·        
Limited Store size – Limited Assortment i.e. not able to fulfill the evolved need of consumers.
·        
Limited Working Capital cycle – Cash payments to Supply chain partners
·        
Erosion in gross margin due – Not getting good deals from Brands
·        
Store is unorganized – need to revamp / Facelift
 
The above main Five elements are making him
negative, however, a long list is there. He needs energy from the inside to do
something new. New CPG brands definitely bring good taste to his margin
but the limited space of his shop and indifferent mood is making him annoyed
all the way. 

 
New Brands owners need to first identify a
good channel partner who can extend adequate credit with a feasible RTV policy
to retailers then only retailers will show interest in onboarding new brands
and provide product placement and visibility at their stores.

 
In
nutshell –

“Dhanda rahega to aatmvishvas bana rahega, Deemag open rahega aur
naye development honge”

When we write something on Kirana retail, many things cook simultaneously because various developments are going on there and the center of the axis is the Retailer who is most affected, without his intervention Brands will not go large in market coverage and will not
penetrate to the last consumers.
 
Stakeholders involved in the retail
distributions are:
CFA | Super stockiest |Distributors |
Vertical |Retailer | eB2B Startup | Horizontal | D2C | Quick –
Commerce | Social Commerce |  Super & Hypermarket stores
| Online- Marketplaces | B2C startups | Price Cutters
| Wholesalers
 
Equation
Retail             =         85% unorganized
+ 15% Organized

 

Technology Intervention and
associated cost

 
We can’t deny the intervention of
technology. Without it, we can’t think of scaling our business beyond the pilot
city. Choosing suitable IT tools is one of the important tasks for every
business entity. As a new brand if you are going with e-com trade then
there will be proper visibility of last mile activities, and as a new brand,
you can be benefited from the accessible data touch points and use it further
for enhancing the capabilities. But, if you are planning to go through a
traditional channel then choose a SaaS-based or proprietary solution. If
you are a new brand entrant, I will not suggest going for a proprietary
solution. The market is flooded with evolved categories of warehousing,
distribution & supply chain-driven IT tools, market leaders are Bizom,
Kirana King & many more. Efficient, evolved solutions of DMS and WMS are
already in place and competitive in terms of cost. Try to find out the solution
which provides you with complete solutions from demand creation to delivery and
inventory holding to secondary sales.

 

Actionable

 
I
would say that challenges will remain for new brands in CPG segment whether it
comes from the organized trade or unorganized but the journey through retailers
is going to be tougher day by day. No doubt, new brands come with innovation
and bring a good margin spread for the entire value chain, but here we have to
understand how these channels are going to welcome new brands and what special
things they have to drive.   Few things will help new brand
owners and manufacturers when they are going to market with the right GTM
strategy.
 
  1. Market centric - Start with your
    pilot city. Live all the things which you are carrying in your business model
    whether it is related to revenue streams, marketing & technology
    interventions. Do not rush to other cities without that otherwise, it will be a
    costly affair and one will go out of cash anytime in between and will be out of
    the market.
  2. Retailer’s Delight:  Your direct interaction is with the Retailer so it should be in mind how you aregoing to provide the best peace of mind in your dealing. Three main things are in the retailer’s delights. Good Margin, Free Samples, Quality Assurance, Convenient availability, best RTV policy, Credit period assurance, and fast redressed of consumer complaints. If, being a new brand you take of retailer’s delight, in return they will help you establish your brand in their neighborhood
  3. Placement Strategy: Placement of products in the focus market always go as per the business strategy but I will suggest adopting either strategy, one is “Deep down” and the other is “Selective”. In deep-down strategy brands go with the entire market, here you need to start placement from the smallest shop, then small shop, medium shop, and then to A&B&C class shops, and start placement at each retail store irrespective of class or category. If you are driving your strategy as Selective, then you need to go with selected stores but such stores should be in strategic locations or should have a proper consumer base. Their high-end consumers will help you establish your brand in an upper segment so while selecting these shops go with the colony Kirana leaders.
  4. Call for Action: in Deep down placement strategy call for action become an easy tool to inform end consumers to buy your products from nearby retailers but when going with a Selective placement strategy you will find difficulties because you don’t have any uniform name where the call for action option can be exercised. To overcome this issue, you need to go with branded i.e retail chain stores. Like the Franchise store chain of kiranaking in Jaipur, Ratandeep chain in Bangalore and Hyderabad, Localmart in Gujarat, and many more standalone supermarkets like big box retailers.
  5. Distribution Channel: Always go with traditional distribution channels, for placement of new brands at the retailer’s store these names will be useful and they will help in cities in Tier  3rd and onward and rural areas. In Tier I, II cities many EB2B startups and logistics companies are doing DTR but they are not able to place new brands with the retailers. Before finalizing a traditional hyperlocal distributor channel partner, you need to go with a proper agreement that the distributor will extend adequate credit to retailers and shall comply with the RTV policy on time. In the same way, you need to give proper credit to your distributors. I will also advise you to go with distribution aggregation platforms that are working closely with Retailers, and distributors and have worked on unified technology platforms. You being a new brand owner don’t need to go for developing Distribution channels. Now, Startups are working, go with them, this will save you time for Go-To- market and in a short period of time will help to make your product market fit. Still, 40 % market is catered by formal channels but an informal channel of wholesalers is driving the secondary market in a big way. Though there is no direct feeding by the Brands, they buy their stuff from
    distributors or under cutters and further serve the small retailers.

  6. Marketing & PR: Wise use of social media is going dynamics these days. You don’t need to spend money on traditional marketing tools of ATL/BTL but today we can’t underestimate the uses of social media. Route your PR activities through social media. I have seen NCR-based startup ‘country delight’, they did the best use of social media and are now a well-known name in a very short period of time.
 
Soon
FMCG/CPG market is going horde, thousands of new brands will be visible in the
market, and they will definitely bet on their luck and will as usual try to do
their product market fit, however, some of them will be for short period, some
will struggle and few will get the best pulse of consumers and will succeed to
establish themselves as a brand. 

The definition of CPG will be altered and
food &  
staples will be included in the new definition. Soon,
CPG/FMCG will have a one-word “Grocery”.
 
I
am sure despite so much struggle for new brand entrants, they are going to
contribute to our GDP in a big way. This will surely help to achieve 
 
India would become
$5 trillion economy in the next 5 year and the contribution of new CPG brands will be
there

* Disclaimer: Data and market projections are based on the development going on in the market, however, size may vary from the given numbers depending on the actual scenario of retail at the said time frame in the future. 

The article was written on : 10th, oct, 2022 in Jaipur.  It will be published on Linkedin by 29 or 30th October 2022. you may get the link from here:  https://www.linkedin.com/in/indiaretail 









































































































































































































































Wednesday, September 14, 2022

eB2B startups & their challenges












The last three years were very much dynamics because of the fortified events of developments going on in the retail sector in India. Startups were getting huge funding and at the same time, Investors were enjoying the curry. Investors' big love remain with the tech startups and were ready to burn the money like crazy. 

But now the scenario is changed. There is a list of eB2B players who raised billions of dollars during the last 3 years. Most of them become unicorns. Expanded to other cities like crazy. Some of them infused millions of dollars in setting up distribution centers, employing a big army of manpower, burning millions on marketing, and building up losses.  Retailers were in the middle of every eB2B startup. 

In this movement, more than a hundred startups are working in bits & pieces in their territories but few of them could succeed to play at the national level.  If I count on fingers only three or four startups are working very closely in Grocery retail.  Some of them are working in 28 locations i.e. states including 200 cities and more than 10000 pin codes, and some are working in one or two states but all have the same set of problems that they are encountering in their daily operations. 

I will not mention the names of those startups working closely in eB2B grocery retail but yes you will understand who will be all about.  First of all, I will try to explain the need for eB2B players in this ecosystem of grocery retail and will discuss why they are not able to provide the so-called solutions.

The emergence of Technology:  Till 2012 speed of the internet was paced mildly by the broadband connections and had limitations of reach to many tiers 2 and tiers 3 cities.   We can't say that e-commerce was not there at that time.  Most of the B2B players were using web applications so they were sticking to their seats only and thus could not find it more aggressive.  Startups like Indiamart, TradeInida, and many other e-commerce players were the pioneer of their time.  Still, Indiamart is doing good. It is all about the vision of Promoters. Transactions started taking place with the availability of Chinese smartphones in the Indian market. Retailers and consumers started using the best features of these phones. Marketplace models like Amazon and Flipkart started onboarding sellers on their platforms. end Consumers started ordering merchandise through Mobile Applications.  This has given a big momentum to the B2B players and they started focusing on technology.  A fever of investment cartels started coming to India from Silicon Valley from 2013 onwards. VC i.e. Venture Capital funds cartel employing IIM Alumni as their fund manager and they started collaborating with Technocrats. A kind of lobby was built, however, it is not that true as the founders of Oyo, and Paytm were not from that background but yes 70-80% of startups and investors are from top B-schools.  Last week I met a former founder of  Payment QR fintech. He said that if you are not from IIT or IIM or from Oxford or a top funding company you will not get funding. It is sure that 99% of the chance is that you will not be entertained by investors. This is a big cartel of like-minded people. and like-minded is all about being from the same community. But, my mindset was not to take it with me so why should it happen. I am a businessman carrying a business mindset and I know how to run a profitable business so I know about it. How fresher who came from IIT or IIM  know about business sense. But, I can't discuss this here as it is a different matter and thought.  

Startups started working on Ideas and started disrupting the existing markets. There was only one feature that was working at that time - Technology led startup or Tech Driven founded by the IIT-ians or technocrats.  The focus was given to the Retail sector keeping in mind the size of the market and opportunities.  The thought behind eB2B commerce was to disrupt the market through direct reach to the retailers and that had happened only by way of eliminating the middlemen. But, what made them start these business models in India.  Let's work on this. 

Why eB2B players entering Grocery Retail

Indian retail market is huge in size.  GDP of the entire African countries included with many European countries is equal to the Indian Retail market size. A market of USD 800 billion itself a huge amount to count and out of which 60 % market is grocery retail. As per the market sources, this size will be more than USD1.3 trillion by 2030 or more.  More than 14 million retailers represent the market. Indian retail mainly in FMCG is channelized by a robust distribution system.  More than 35000 distributors are working in FMCG & Grocery sector carrying brands of more than 5000+ manufacturers. The traditional system of distribution was carrying the middlemen like CFA, Super stockiest, Distributors, and wholesalers. The retailers were their customers. Indian traditional distribution system is robust and it got these wings after years of hard work and innovations.  FMCG companies like HUL, P&G, Dabur, Nestle, and many more have robust distribution systems. 

Now, startups started working on this segment by way of creating efficiencies.  What were those efficiencies? 
  • Reaching Direct to Retailers
  • Eliminating middle man
  • Technology-driven - Mobile Application in the hand of retailers & their FOS.
  • Data Analytics
They found that retailers are facing various issues like dealing with multiple distributors, uncompetitiveness, price discovery, ease of reordering, not getting the benefit of bulk buying, and Not getting proper credit in managing vendor Payments, expiry, and space almost they find that retailers need to be empowered in a way of giving them centralized supply solutions.  This is the problem they are facing in a big way. Providing Centralise Supply to Retailers is the solution and giving Sellers/ Brands a one-stop distribution solution that they don't need to go behind traditional distributors. This way brands can save money, time, and energy working.  As such, there is no issue in the business model. Technology is giving wings to it and everyone can manage their stuff.  This way their target customer is Retailers.

Year 2017 onward we have seen many big names in eB2B, some of them started working as marketplace models, some started as standalone direct-to-retail models, and others started on hybrid models. Few of them were category masters. At the time of their investment pitch, they said their technology-driven business model always remains Asset light. But, later on, eB2B players started working on Asset heavy model i.e. setting up distribution centers in metro cities.  I have seen that few have a DC capacity of 3 lakh sq feet in one location, they started employing thousands of salespersons to drive their DTR sales to retailers.  Huge infrastructures were built in the name of the Asset Light model. I would say that investors have no idea about the business they just bet on the business model and they do believe in technology-driven models and burning.  I am taking readers to the actual scenario which is the backbone of any company working for a profit. following calculations will give some light on the factual status of business these eb2b players are doing.  

We can understand this through an example: This study was done taking one eB2B model in the center of my study. I was closely watching the whole operations of an eB2B marketplace startup.  They started their business in 2017 and later on after receiving huge funding they moved to other cities very aggressively.  An average 50000 sq feet distribution center facility is built up in one city and today they have more than 40 cities where they have physical warehouses/ DC.  Setting up their own DC has a different cost and taking them with 3PL has another cost as some go fixed and others go variables. 

Let's have tentative figures:   I will try to explain them through the below-mentioned table. 


(Capex taken higher side, which includes verticals shelves, Pallet Trucks, etc) 

The above calculation will give a visual clarification that why eB2B players are not making money. This calculation I have worked out for one location i.e. One city like Delhi or Indore or Jaipur. 

If you talk to them you will find that they are working on 11% -15% opex cost/revenue and in return generating GP 3% to 6%  if we take benefit of business growth.  

Now, Let's bring some light on critical things which are hampering their growth as well as profitability. 

The problem faced by eB2B Players

eB2B startups have huge coverage, they have thousands of retailers on-boarded on their Applications, also thousand of Feet on the Street ( FOS) visit retailers daily. They have competitive pricing, availability, and convenience in providing timely deliveries but still, they are not making money. Why? 

Every eB2B startups claim to have millions of Retailers on their Application, having a presence across 10000+pincode, and for attracting investors, they are dividing States into Cities so that they can show their milestone in a larger prospect.  But again what is wrong with their financials.  Few challenges are there which is choking their bottom line irrespective of having million-dollar top-line numbers.  Let's put a light there: 
  • High Operating Cost
  • Product Mix Issue
  • Restrictive Behaviour of FMCG companies
  • No Credit Facility to Retailer. 
High Operating Cost:   eB2B startups or any startups who want to scale their business, need to go with the system and process. And when any organization goes with the system and process there is always a cost associated with it.  Proper functional departments must be in place which in turn stamps with a heavy cost. However, operating cost is a business element and business has to leverage it but due to the improper projections, they are employing manpower in a big way and paying them high salaries. cost of retaining every employee is high as has to give other benefits too and also infra cost is too high. Most of the infra is managed by 3PL but is not able to use full capacity. Only 40-50% capacity is being used but fixed cost is there to make it high operating too.  The cost of delivery is too high as MOQ is not adhered to by the retailers. In the above calculation, I have taken 50/- per order selling & distribution cost which is too low but again they are not getting sales to the MOQ. 

Product mix issue: No doubt they have sitting on a very high operating cost.  However, it can be covered if revenue to the tune is generated but again improper product mix is melting the bottom line.  If you can analyze the product category mix you will find that retailers are using them only for main staples like Oil, Ghee, Sugar, Pulses, etc which is again a convenient buying to retailers because they are getting everything under one roof.  Staples is only contributing to the top line so having up to 80% contribution in their revenue, but if you go by the gross margin level you will find that staples in bulk or in a popular demanded brand are very thin. like Oil and Ghee for a popular brand, no one can earn more than 2%  except for market volatility. The same is with Sugar and Pulses. Majorly traded in bulk packaging.  If one has 70-80% contribution of Oil & Sugar in their revenue then you can imagine the bottom line. Apart from this 2% is the RTV cost including the in-transit damage to the merchandise. 

Restrictive behavior of FMCG companies:  Since FMCG companies have a robust traditional channel in place so their FMCG brands do not want to disturb the GT market for these players, however, they want to sell on eB2B but they never compromise on pricing. In one incident, Parle company fought a case with one B2B startup and denied giving them their products. It is their helplessness to buy at their Price and then through a discount from their end, they sell on their platform. demanded product is the requirement of these startups because there is something needed that shows engagement with retailers otherwise, retailers will not entertain or will use its limits. They need FMCG national-level brands so that Retailers give space to salesman to stay at their counter and can cross-sell other merchandise. How they will sell new brands having high margins or can build a healthy category mix. You can see the contribution of such products.  

Credit to Retailers:  Since startups are working on systems and processes and they are more dependent on technology-driven stuff so they have limitations somewhere. May be from the business model side as they got funding on it and they can't let open the credit in the market. All are selling their stuff against COD or through some fintech arrangement like channel funding. But, it is true that Retailers will not buy any products except demanding one against cash. Even FMCG distributors are providing credits to retailers. Local Mandies especially for staples are providing 5-15 days of credit to retailers. Retailers are buying stuff from eB2B players. This is one big factor that they will not be able to generate more revenue from retailers without giving open credit. Open credit means based on trust. Like local distributor and mandi traders has for them. 

Above are the pinch of problems I tried to figure out.  But, I have a concern that without disturbing the existing distribution system startups from eB2B will not scale their business but they will not make money.  For making money they have to work on a different scenario. Still, they will remain eB2B but few things will be aligned otherwise they will never make money.  

Last year remain investor dry weather in India. They understood the fact that burning will not bring earnings even in the long run.  Retail will only use these eB2B platforms for their best selfishness but never contribute to scale.  Disturbing the existing ecosystem is a costly affair for them and if they don't take them with their journey, they will be finished mid-way. 

eB2B startups have to adapt a few things which will help them to sustain themselves. My best advice for them is to pivot the business model in the right direction and don't think to disturb the existing channels. If possible think about how you can associate with them and take them on your journey. 

I am working on this, creating a scalable and profitable business model.  

Regards/ Baalwant Rana

Sunday, September 4, 2022

My Books - A Soul Friend









                                                                         Books



 
How we treat friends and who are our friends.  This is not a difficult question to ask.  We all have friends. Love for animals in Europe and US is mostly seen for Cats, for them, cats are their best friend but for a few of them not all. for many, they treat dogs as their best friend.  This goes with living creations but there are some amazing things about non-living things like cars, Phones, TV, bikes, houses, etc.  

Yesterday, I was watching a famous TV serial " Tarak Mehta ka Ulta Chasma".  You must know about the Poppet Lal. He is in the character of a journalist. He always carries an Umbrella with him. He is treating his umbrella as his best freind. In one episode, Poppet organizes a birthday party for celebrating the tenth birthday of his umbrella. At this event, Poppet was mocked by his guest as it was suspense kept by him and guests were of at no clue whom birthday Poppet is celebrating, but when a member of Gokuldham society came to know that this birthday party is organized by Poppet for his Umbrella they laugh at him saying how an umbrella can be a friend of someone. Strange for those who take it as a kind of psychological imbalance.  but for normal people it is fact. Friends are friends, we can't compare them with their shape, and size. We like their sentiments and belongingness. The same is with our mindset. 

In the same reference, we must have heard many times that Books are our best friends.  I can say that they were right.  Books are best friends because it helps us to learn new things about life and life behavior. We learn academics from these books, learn spirituality and read stories of our past, and history. Books help us make our future the best we want. 

There are a few books which I like the most : 
  1. Think and Grow Rich
  2. Rich Dad Poor Dad
  3. As a Man Thinketh
  4. The Power of Your Subconscious mind
Here is a little library of my choice. 





During covid time  I bought many books and in fact, I got time to read them all.  I never read books 5 years back but when I first read the Book " The Power of your subconscious mind, I learn and understand the importance of books in my life.  When you sit in your chair and take a book soulfully, you will see the magic. You will feel that someone like a teacher is sitting in front of you, guiding you on the subject and you are following his instruction.  This way Books are the silent Guru, the mentor.  
I am managing my books in my way in the following tabular form. Stating the name of the book, its author, MRP , Nos of Pages, and  Number on the book. I put numbers on each book so that I could know if any books is not on the shelf.  This is my way of keeping.  Maybe your way is more systematic and IT-driven. 

The purpose of demonstrating the books here is to show how important they are to me and how I used to keep them on my reading table. 







Every day read 10 pages of your favorite book and share your views on Linkedin, blog, and Facebook. Send your story to me on my email " parjakalyanm@gmail.com  or send me Whatsapp on my phone: +91-9968313005. I would love to hear from you and write back to you. 
  

Parjakalyanm - Fostering Bharat to new Dimensions

Empowering Bharat through One Nation, One Rule. Advocating UCC, NRC, and CAA in Bharat, and also supporting a two-party political system democracy instead of multi-party system

UCC

UCC
UCC

Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019

Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019
CAA